first released 12/20/20 Well, $TSLA will be fun to watch – and Elon Musk (in many ways I feel cut from a similar cloth as Elon and have a lot of respect for him); welcome to Texas (while also welcoming HP and Oracle, with Larry remote working from Hawaii). Look Elon himself has noted that $TSLA is overvalued – it will fall, and probably pretty hard – and probably in ’21 – I am very close to initiating my $TSLA common short. Tesla has very low institutional ownership, and no

Another week, and more risk-off. Well Trump has the virus, WuFlu, COVD19, and is taking a two week vacation with Melania - where they are sure to renew their vows. Apparently, for those forced to 14d quarantine you are supposed to stay isolated - but at the hotels, there has been some adult activities - if you are stranded for 14 days, with someone else, this is bound to happen given a large enough sample size. I am temporarily in the Biden camp for the VERY FIRST time - why

Will people get rich shorting $TSLA, $APPL, $DOCU, #MoMo names just like in the dot.com era? Or will these unicorns prevail at ridiculous non-sensical valuations? GRAB yo popcorn. This week, broad based weakness – and – our view, as relayed previously is that we would see a period of “risk-off” between summer, Jhole, Sep FOMC – until each of the Fed and the ECB bring fiscal bazookas – AND – US Congress announces a stimulus package of sufficient size to keep the economic pisto

On July 7, 2020, Moody’s Investors Services slashed its Global EBITDA estimates for the Shipping industry in a research note, “we now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020, widening from our previous projection of a drop of around 6%-10%,” underscoring global economic weakness. Moody’s is skeptical in regard to an uptick in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) off lows; and, finds that tanker rate stabilization is being driven by high

On March 27, 2020, in "Market Currents" we indicated, "Trepp issued a very brief note yesterday, alleging to have Stress Tested the CMBS pools - and finding Hotel and Retail likely to have near Great Recession difficulties - while Office, MF, Industrial to fair somewhat better than the Great Recession.  While we generally agree with this, we are still formulating our opinion.  We like Cell Towers (but not at the public multiples as growth stocks ?!), MF and Self Storage withi

Fitch Credit Ratings is out with a general note on the European Outlook.  They have a baseline Occ%, ADR, RevPAR forecast for Europe - which we find as optimistic ourselves.  Irrespective, as a big fan of Fitch, some key takeaways from the note below, and almost all applicable to the U.S. Lodging Sector.  We believe that the Lodging Credit Downgrades will begin with either 2Q Earnings (July-August) or if companies are forced to draw on their Revolvers or issue Debt prior to t

COVID19 Death Rate in US to Rise, will it Flatline?   Almost every COVID19 Forecasting Model (n=14) currently utilized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for Cumulative Deaths in the U.S. is showing 100,000 to be eclipsed here in ~3 weeks time, before June 1. At the same time, countries such as Brazil are starting to see alarming numbers - and this is a country - without the testing and timely reporting abilities of the U.S., itself by no stretch par exce

In our Newsletter, Issue #6 (5/27/19), we highlighted weakness in Disk Drives ($DDX), Retail ($XRT proxy), and Sysco ($SYY) - on the first trading day of the week, 5/28, all three saw declines above broader indices (e.g. S&P500). Elevated $VIX and Bonds (e.g. $TLT) showed the direction for the day after the first hour of trading (930 - 1030 EDT); which was risk-off. prudent traders hit the exits throughout the day. #NotInvestmentAdvice

++ Our $MU $40 Put, Buy to Open, June 14 expiry @ $1.60, sits at over 2X +- Our $HTZ $19 Put, Buy to Open, July 19 expiry @ $3.30, sits at $2.25, with the security having declined post-earnings as we expected; but, with theta decay eating the open option. +- Our $WSM $57.50 Put, Buy to Open, May 16 expiry @ $1.25 covered too early, as the security sits at $53.73, and the option into expiry today @ $3.39 (or almost 3x). - Our $SBUX $65 Put, Buy to Open, Nov expiry @ $1.81 - cu

We like $KO and have added it to our Watchlist, looking for a good entry. #NotInvestmentAdvice

We have the entry and set up we wanted now: Jun 14 Put $18 strike @ $1.20 / contract buy to open. #NotInvestmentAdvice

On the common core position of 4/23, in which we sold a covered call (4/26) that cleared; currently still open with naked May $37 put. Here again, covered call, sell to open May 17 Call, $40 strike at $0.62. #NotInvestmentAdvice

We think this go-go stock has had its run, trading at over 100x now. Why exactly? We enter Buy to Open August 16 Puts $360 strike @ $26.80. We pray (though this should not be a basis for investment) for a 30x or less multiple at some point. #NotInvestmentAdvice

We usually do not dip into Small Caps - but the Gap Down (breaking all support) in Farmer Bros appears to be based on declining fundamentals. We see no prospect for near-term reversal and believe that short-interest may build here. On the flip side, this company has considerable insider ownership. #NotInvestmentAdvice

On April 10 here, we went bearish in Hertz. It's getting its teeth kicked in today, after earnings. Yet, our $3 put play has been eaten by Theta (i.e. time decay). Also our May Put call at $40 on Micron ($MU) also looking directionaly great - but also eaten by Theta. This underscores the timing of earnings in relation to entering options plays that will be affected by time decay. We will revisit these securities and others later this week. #NotInvestmentAdvice

Action on the bid in U.S. Markets today was mostly as predicted. Euro traded higher throughout the Day ($XEU) with a softening $USD. We see today's weakness in the $USD as 100% technical. Taking a step back from the 1-day chart, and looking at the Euro ($XEU), you can see the technical banding, with the USD now (on a technical basis) at or near its high band mark. We don't view a softening of such position in a medium-term downtrend against this macro backdrop as anything

Recall when we commented at the beginning of the month about dollar strength? $UUP sitting AT 26.23 above that level (26.03) - and $USD ripping the face of Aussie and Euro; the former which will have to cut and be the first to cut. #BeingRightMatters #NotInvestmentAdvice #NoPositions

JELD appears to be consolidating in the $18-$22 neighborhood. $JELD looks like a steal in the $13-$17 range from its Dec lows. We believe JELD would make a nice acquisition target for $HD or $LOW at the right valuation. We've placed it on our watch list. #NotInvestmentAdvice #NoPositions

We see no reason to not be bullish right here on Twitter. We love its PEG ratio. We love its operating margin. We love the fact that as a unicorn, it has a sustainable business model. We love that once it does peak, stripping out R&D gives this company an even meaner operating model. We see no reason TWTR should not be trading at or above its 52-week high. We enter: Long 1/2 position common at $40.15. Selling the draft, 1x common for full position set, Sell May 17 $37