Market Insight: USGDP 1Q19e
The revered, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser, Allianz. Author of NYT bestsellers "When Markets Collide" and “The Only Game in Town.” commenting on the Atlanta Fed Nowcast US GDP estimate for 1Q19. " With the 1st reading of US Q-1 #GDP growth out this week, a couple of WSJ charts showing how the AtlantaFed forecast has evolved this year. Impacted by the shutdown, it started at just 0.3% ...and is now at 2.8% on the back of the household sector (Consensus estimate is 2.4%.)" WE TAKE ISSUE.
When Real GDP declined in: (a) Q415 v Q315, (b) Q316 v Q216, and (c) Q417 v Q317 - the Atlanta Fed Nowcast model - highly inferior to the NY Fed's models, personnel and intellect, overshot.
NY Fed has Q119e GDP at 1.37%, hovering in the 1.4% area for a month now. We are firmly with the NYFed and Consensus here - AtlantaFed will overshoot - AGAIN when Q119 GDP is released.